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Stationarity against multi-integration in the autoregressive process with polynomial trend

Le : 21/10/2013 11h00
Par : Frédéric Proïa (université Bordeaux 1)
Lieu : I 103
Lien web :
Résumé : We tackle the stationarity issue of an autoregressive path with a polynomial trend, and we generalize some aspects of the LMC test, the testing procedure of Leybourne and McCabe. First, we show that it is possible to get the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis of trend-stationarity as well as under the alternative of nonstationarity, for any polynomial trend of order r, and potentially multi-integrated noise of order d. Then, we explain the reason why the LMC test, and by extension the KPSS test, does not reject the null hypothesis of trend-stationarity, mistakenly, when the random walk is generated by a unit root located at -1. We also observe it on simulated data. Finally, we describe some useful stochastic processes that appear in our limiting distributions.